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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd